Tonight, tonight!!

Celebrating in Union Square, 1:30 am

not sure about this...

is this a great moment? yes.

RINOs, and Elephants, and Donkies.... oh my!

Joining a long list (see below) of other Republicans, conservatives, and generally unlikely supporters, Connecticut House member Chris Shays, the sole GOP rep from New England, has publicly stated the obvious, and predicted a victory for Obama, or - more accurately - a loss for McCain.

New England's lone House Republican appears to have publicly broken with his party's standard-bearer, saying John McCain has not run a clean campaign and is likely to lose his bid for the presidency. "I just don't see how [McCain] can win," Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays told the Yale Daily News earlier this week. "He has lost his brand as a maverick; he did not live up to his pledge to fight a clean campaign."

To be fair to John, Shays is a pretty moderate Republican -- oh wait! Isn't that McCain's whole schtick?

So, here's the rest of the list, with a little bio where bio is necessary. Some of these are really fun.

• Colin Powell - retired General, former Secretary of State under GWB, former National Security Advisor under Reagan, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under GHWB
• Scott McClellan - former White House Press Secretary under GWB
• Charles Fried - former United States Solicitor General under Reagan, testified on behalf of Supreme Judges Roberts and Alito, former McCain supporter
• Paul O'Neill - former Secretary of the Treasury under GWB
• Larry Pressler - former GOP Senator from South Dakota, first Vietnam veteran to be elected into the Senate
• Lincoln Chafee - former GOP Senator from Rhode Island
• Jim Leach - former GOP House Republican for 30 years from 1977 to 2007, chaired the Banking and Financial Services Committee in Congress
• Arne Carlson - former GOP Governor of Minnesota
• William Weld - former GOP Governor of Massachusetts
• The Anchorage Daily News - by far most widely read paper in Alaska
• Christopher Buckley - son of the late William F. Buckley who founded the conservative magazine National Review, which Chris himself wrote for until he was forced to resign earlier this year after endorsing Barack Obama
• Jeffrey Hart - fellow National Review contributer, former speechwriter under Tricky Dick
• Rupert Murdoch (!!!!) - In a 2008 interview, Murdoch was asked whether he had anything to do with the New York Post's endorsement of Obama. Murdoch replied, "Yeah. He is a rock star. It's fantastic. I love what he is saying about education. I don't think he will win Florida...but he will win in Ohio and the election. I am anxious to meet him. I want to see if he will walk the walk."
• The American Hunters and Shooters Association - I just find this so unbelievable but from their website, a direct quote: "In Ohio for Obama, gun owners are getting the message"
• Fontaine Maverick - great-granddaughter of Samuel Maverick, who's cows coined the term
• Katherine Schwarzenegger and Maria Shriver - First Daughter and First Lady, respectively, of California Republican Governor, Arnie
• Rabi Ethan Tucker - Joe "i'm a p.o.s." Lieberman's step-son
• Kathleen Hensley Portaski - Cindy Hensley McCain's half sister
• Julie NIXON EISENHOWER - daughter of Tricky Dick, wife of David Eisenhower (Ike's grandson), has the craziest name probably ever, especially to be voting BLUE
• and my personal favorite Kirbyjon Caldwell - Oft considered one of the most, if not the most, influential spritual advisors to current president, born-again, Evangelical George W. Bush. Pastor of the megachurch Windsor Village Methodist in Houston, TX, which has around 14,000 members, Caldwell offered the official benediction at Bush's inauguration in 2001 and 2005, officiated at the wedding of Jenna Bush and her cousin Henry Hager in May, ENDORSED BARACK OBAMA FOR THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Now, Republicans have a name for those in their own party who seem to be less conservative than the majority of their peers: RINO (Republican in name only). While I guess this could be scary, in a McCarthy sort of way, I can't help but be amused at the perfect sense it makes, because when you mix an Elephant and a Donkey, well, don't you sort of get a Rhino?

South Dakota = major drag.

You cannot outlaw abortion, you can only outlaw illegal abortion

Before I really get into the post, I would like to preface it with a little disclaimer: despite my strong pro-choice stance and the fact that I have never personally been faced with this situation, I find the issue very complicated, and am in no way intolerant of someone else's opinion... when it comes to their own personal bodily choice.

Ok.

In 1973 the landmark abortion case Roe v Wade was decided by the Supreme Court and abortion became legal in all fifty of the United States ("up until the point at which the fetus becomes viable"... thanks for being so clear guys).

Below is a list of abortion legislation that occurred in South Dakota following Roe v Wade

1977 - the South Dakota legislation amended the abortion statute, requiring medical attention for infants born alive during abortions

1980 - passed a law requiring 24-hour waiting period before an abortion

1981 - adopted law protecting medical personnel and institutions for refusal to participate in abortions

1982 - changed the law to allow county and municipal hospitals to adopt no-abortion policies

1993 - passed a law requiring parental notification for minors, informed consent, + the 24hr wait period

1997 - passed first partial-birth abortion ban

1998 - passed a law protecting pharmacists who refused to dispense abortion medications, etc.

2000 - passed a law prohibiting anyone other than physicians from performing or inducing abortions

2004 - passed a bill that tried to ban abortions in South Dakota and allow them only if a woman's life was in danger or if she faced grave health risks. Bill was vetoed by Gov. Mike Rounds.

That same year another bill was rejected, which would have required hospitals to offer information about emergency contraception to rape victims.

I remember this well. My roommate at the time was the uber-driven and successful grand-daughter of a South Dakota state legislator who, though he is a self-confirmed "life long republican," has always been on the side of choice when it comes to abortions, (perhaps because he is Jewish and doesn't share the same religious philosophies of much of the Right that ultimately lead to their opinion over the topic). Anyway, he was so involved in the dispute, he flew my then-roommate from New York City out to South Dakota, which I never actually realized had existed before that very moment, to testify on behalf of young women everywhere. She came back a couple days later, showing of her front-page cover in the local - or possibly state - press. I was in awe.

Then came the first statewide vote to completely ban abortion in 2006, which lost 55% to 44%. One major reason that was cited was the bills lack of a threat to life clause, which provides exceptions to the ban when the life of the mother is at risk if the pregnancy continues. So they tweaked it a little and it only took two years to get the bill back on the statewide ballot. When people in South Dakota go to the polls this coming Tuesday, they will once again be voting on whether or not to issue a statewide ban.

This is more-or-less in line with the McCain/Palin stance. While Palin abhors all abortion, McCain believes Roe v Wade was a fundamentally flawed decision and should be overturned and replaced by statewide laws. Here is the problem with that:

Regional restriction denies choice, more or less completely, for people living within the light blue areas on the map above. If a girl in Mississippi has an unwanted pregnancy, she is not left with very many options, especially if she is without funds or access to help, and thus, illegal abortions will begin to exist again, even in a country that has access.

Abortion was criminalized throughout the U.S. between the late 1800s and 1973. But during that time, millions of women sought and obtained abortions anyway. Of these, tens upon tens of thousands died from illegal abortions or complications arising from them. One 1932 study estimated that illegal abortions or complications from them were the cause of death for 15,000 women each year. Current, more conservative, estimates of the death toll still stand at between 5,000 and 10,000 deaths per year.

Happy Halloween

Its gonna be a scary one indeed!
love,
Zobox and Sarah!

New Blog

Check me out over at Twolia.com!

http://twoliablog.com/zoboxrox/

Ever grapple with the Second Ammendment? Me too.... lets grapple together!

The Delight that is Cindy McCain

If Senator McCain seems hesitant to attack Senator Obama for personal issues, such as Jeremiah Wright and his angry-black man preaching, it may be because he's hiding some of his own skeletons in his proverbial closet. One very prominent skeleton in McCain's life is his very well dressed wifey, Cindy McCain.

When it comes to Cindy, a smearer, like myself I suppose, just doesn't know where to begin. Being an old fashioned kind of girl, I like to take it from the top. One, two, three, four...

• Cindy Lou Hensley was born in Phoenix, Arizona in 1954, the same year John Sidney McCain III entered the Naval Academy. Her father, James Hensley, was one of the wealthiest men in Arizona when he died in 2000, having made his fortune as a liquor distributor and founder of Hensley and Co, the third largest distributor of Anheuser-Busch. Prior to his successes, however, Jim Hensley had a habit of breaking the law, and was in trouble with the authorities for fraudulent business behavior on more than once occasion, including a six-month Federal sentence in 1948. Nonetheless, his affluence afforded Cindy an elite lifestyle, and she went on to receive such honors as "Junior Rodeo Queen of Arizona" in 1968 and "Best Dressed" in high school her senior year

• She met John McCain in 1979 while he was still married to his first wife of fourteen years, Carol. By April 1980, John had divorced Carol and he and Cindy were married in a lavish wedding May of that year.

• This was neither the first affair John had had nor the first marriage he had broken up, as Carol was married too when she and John had first met, back when Cindy was 3.

• In 1988 Cindy created her own charity NGO called The American Voluntary Medical Team , which organized trips to disaster-struck or war-torn areas of the third world. It also provided her with easy access to a plethora of opiates to help support her twenty-pill a day addiction.

  Cindy was a serious narcotics addict who created a charity for sick children (American Voluntary Medical Team or AVMT), then used it to get fraudulent prescriptions for Vicodin and Percocet. And a whistleblower from her staff says that John McCain and his senate staffers helped Cindy smuggle her ill-gotten narcotics through customs. Tom Gosinski was fired from AVMT after expressing concerns about her addiction and habit of writing prescriptions in other people's names to get drugs. He says that John McCain himself got her a diplomatic passport, which prevents customs officials from searching her bags... McCain claims he didn't know Cindy was an addict when he got her a diplomatic passport, but that's hard to believe since she had a stretch in rehab back in 1991. Cindy McCain faced 20 years in prison for obtaining "a controlled substance by misrepresenting, fraud, forgery, deception or subterfuge." With a wealthy father, high-priced lawyer and Senator husband, she got the lightest possible punishment -- charges were dropped in return for her entering rehab. Any regular, much less poor person who had written fraudulent prescriptions, stolen narcotics from a charity and smuggled them around the world would have received several years in prison. Her doctor, for one, lost his license and never practiced again.

• That Charles Keating scandal, well Cindy had a hand in that too. In 1986, Cindy and her father James Hensley, invested over $450 thousand in one of Keating's shopping centers, a year before McCain intervened on his behalf with the regulator. The following is a quote from Cindy herself in regards to this investment.

  Sometime in 1986, I was told by Mr. Delgado, who was Executive Vice President of my father-in-law's company, that they were going to invest in a shopping center and that the investment -- the project -- was being put together by a subsidiary of American Continental ... He later told me that they -- that that had happened. And I had no interest in it and just noted in passing that this investment took place.

As you can see, Cindy Mac is the gift that just keeps on giving. I can't wait for her next move!

I honestly feel sorry for John McCain

McCain just cannot catch a break.

GOP supporter and volunteer Ashley Todd of College Station, Texas, was working for the Mac campaign in Pittsburgh, where she is a student, when, she claims, she was attacked by an Obama supporter. The tall black man, angered by the McCain sticker on Todd's car, reportedly, "punched her in the back of the head, knocking her to the ground, and he continued to punch and kick her while threatening to teach her a lesson for being a McCain supporter." He then robbed her and carved a B into her face, backwards... for Barack I guess? or oBama...?

Conservative pundits jumped on the news as if Obama himself had attacked Ashley. McCain and Palin both personally called the "victim" and her family. Even the Obama/Biden camp issued statements wishing Ashley a "speedy recovery." Only problem is, Ashley was lying.

Poor silly Ashley Todd apparently never learned about mirrors. After a few days of making up stories for the police, Todd admitted there was no attacker and that she carved up her own face because of her previously documented mental problems. She's now sitting in jail with and backwards B on her face and $50,o00.00 of bail, trying to figure out if her stunt was politically motivated or emotionally triggered.

I mean, honestly, could it be any worse for John McCain?

Joe McCain's 911 call

So, apparently John McCain has a brother named Joe (of course), and he looks like a turtle. He's also a sissy boo-hoo pants who can't wait 15 minutes. While stuck in some typical 95 traffic, Joe McCain dialed 911 to discover the source. The following is a trascript of the phone call:

Operator: 911 state your emergency

Caller: It's not an emergency, but do you know why on one side at the damn drawbridge of 95 traffic is stopped for 15 minutes and yet traffic's coming the other way?

Operator: Sir, are you calling 911 to complain about traffic? (pause)

Caller: "(Expletive) you." (caller hangs up)

This could be considered both good news and bad news for John McCain. Senator McCain is known for his own bouts of expletive use and general grumpy old man syndrome, though apparently he's always been this way. (Come to think of it, McCain really does have a Judi Dench quality about him). Many people attribute this quality to his time in a POW camp in Vietnam, which was dreadful and would definitely make me fucking crazy, but good old Joe the Brother revealed for us that its actually a homegrown thing. I don't know what this means really, but if you go here, there's audio of the call and it sure is funny.

CosmoVeep

So there's been some stink about Palin's recent shopping excursion, where she reportedly spent a cool $150,000.00 on new clothes and accessories, including almost $50,000.00 at NEW YORK Saks 5th Avenue, and at least 5gs on new duds for the First Dude. Mostly, the spree is critiqued because the Republican campaign has been so gung-hoe Joe Six Pack, anti pork barrel spending, anti New York elite, never mind the fact that Palin mostly purchased non-American brands, including those ugly Japanese glasses.

Everyone has had their say, from politicos to fashion experts, but I think Melinda Henneberger, a blogger for Slate.com's XX factor, put it best in an interview with NPR on Thursday:

I don't blame her for the clothes. If someone gave me a credit card and pointed me towards Neiman Marcus there is a 0% chance I'd come back and tell you I found some very durable things at JC Penny. But I do blame her for dividing us into elites and non-elites, and real America and fake America. Now we knew she was elite before we saw the clothing bill. She hired a Washington lobbyist for her town of 5000. Who does that? [to quote McCain]. And she has access to $1.5 million herself, which doesn't put her in Cindy McCain territory [estimated at around $100 million, conservatively, no pun intended] but it doesn't make her Josephine Six-Pack either.

This is just one example of the hypocrisies that have tarnished the GOP in recent years. This is not my history lesson blog, so I won't explain exactly how this happened, but around two generations ago the Democrats lost about a third of their base, mostly in the South, to the Republican Party, when they adopted the platform of the civil rights movement, and then again, around a generation later, when the Christian Right and the GOP merged and we elected a Born Again. What no Republican President in recent years seems to have taken into much consideration is that the majority of these voters are working-class blue collar types. And what attracted them to the Democrats in the first place was the stark difference in the economic policies between the two parties, the one constant that has more or less endured since FDR (up until a Republican Executive oversaw the greatest government intervention in the financial market, again, since FDR).

So it's possible, upon hearing how much money Palin's team (Cindy McCain?) spent on her wardrobe, she will lose a few more of those disaffected voters who can't quite remember how they got to where they are. While its not a large number, and you probably won't see it affecting the polls, its just one more example of why its even possible that there are still a few SWING VOTERS out there, who are having a hard time abandoning the party they were raised on, but just can't reconcile voting for someone who is not saying anything they need to hear.

Dissecting the Bradley Effect

The Bradley Effect has been a hot topic of discussion in the last few weeks, as pundits question whether it will diminish Obama's substantial lead in the polls. There are those who say it could cost Obama as many as 6 points on Election Day.

In 1982, Democratic Mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley, who ended up serving five terms in this position from 1973-1993 (makes you think about New York's current situation) and incidentally looks like a wax figure, ran for Governor of California. Polls were generally in his favor, and on the eve of the election, as voting stations were closing, Bradley was the projected winner in the media. The next day, however, it became apparent that his opponent, the Republican Attorney General George Deukmejian was actually the victor in the race. At the time, this failure of the polls to predict the outcome was perceived as a deep and festering racism on the part of the voter majority, who said one thing to the pollsters, but then voted the other way once they were in the booth, you know, out of fear of the black man. Thus the effect was conceived.

Of course, this is not the sole case in the study. In 1989, African American L. Douglas Wilder barely beat out his Republican counterpart Marshall Coleman to win the gubernatorial seat in Virginia, even though polls predicted his margin to be much larger. Also in 1989, Former Mayor of the Great City of New York, David Dinkins barely eeked out a victory against the next Former Mayor Rudy Guiliani, though only a week before he had held an 18 point lead in the polls.

So, in the years since these races, has race taken a back seat in dictating the electoral process? It seems the answer is both yes and no, and that it may not fit the formula the Bradley Effect has provided.

While no one, not one single person who discusses this effect, denies that race absolutely plays a factor in an election, many critics of the perceived trend cite individual reasons to re-examine the idea. In both an NPR Interview and a NY Times op-ed piece, former Bradley campaign staffer Blair Levin discusses the academia known as the Bradley Effect against the actual events that unrolled that election race. He explains it better than I, so here are his words:

While it’s no surprise that this has become a topic of discussion as John McCain and Barack Obama near the finish line, as someone who worked for Bradley’s campaign, I think it’s worth pointing out that the effect has been widely misunderstood.

On election night in 1982, with 3,000 supporters celebrating prematurely at a downtown hotel, I was upstairs reviewing early results that suggested Bradley would probably lose.

But he wasn’t losing because of race. He was losing because an unpopular gun control initiative and an aggressive Republican absentee ballot program generated hundreds of thousands of Republican votes no pollster anticipated, giving Mr. Deukmejian a narrow victory.

Deukmejian turns out was Armenian; his parents were born in the Ottoman Empire in places that are hard to pronounce, like Gaziantep and Erzurum. If Californians felt like being racist that year, they probably would not have elected the Ottoman.



I'd like to include two slightly less eloquent excerpts in this post to help illustrate the other side of the point which is this: while there are many people who are openly racist and will not vote for Obama because of this, there are also people who are openly racist and will vote for Obama anyway, and the reason why is not hard to find, its called THE ECONOMY STUPID. While I do not condone the language used in either of these, I can't help but find the idea really fascinating.

The first comes to us from, of all places, the Cafferty File. Crazy old Jack asking lefty questions, this time around his question was the following: Has the financial crisis changed your mind on who to vote for?

Mitchell from Arkansas writes:

yes. absolutely. i will be changing my vote to the intelligent black fella.
president bush failed us, and john mccain will finish the job. we must have someone who is at least on top of these things. a more transparent executive branch is the most important issue of all ,after the last 8 years. i’m fed up with the elitists who have overran my beloved GOP. i’m still republican ,but, i will be voting for obama

Well, at least Mitchell from Arkansas in honest. The second excerpt comes from my favorite Pollster blog, FiveThirtyEight, and describes the experience of a canvasser walking door to door in Western Pennsylvania,

So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

So you see, and as 538 goes onto explain, "in this economy, racism is officially a luxury." When people step into the booths this time around, their minds are not on the social issues that once dominated the national political arena. Issues that dragged war heroes like John Kerry through the mud until he came out looking like Bill Ayers, are now more or less obsolete, and even if they don't like it, Americans trust the middle-class looking Obama on the economy more than they trust 7-house, 13-car John McCain.

After all, who could ever not trust this face?